You’re Losing Money Before You Knock on the Door (Here’s Why)

1. Your Brain Is Taking Shortcuts 

Chris opens with the foundation. Cognitive biases are unconscious shortcuts your brain uses to process information. 

They’re not always bad — but on service calls, they cost you money. You’re pulling up to houses, reading the yard, the cars, the neighborhood, and forming opinions about what a customer can afford before you ever talk to them. And you don’t know you’re doing it.

Key Takeaways:

• Cognitive biases are unconscious — you don’t know they’re happening until you’re made aware
• Your brain looks for patterns and makes quick decisions because it’s more efficient
• Unless you’re trained to counteract them, you’re a victim of your own shortcuts

2. Confirmation Bias: You Only See What Supports Your Belief 

Chris uses the plumber and the water heater. Customer calls with no hot water. 95% of the time it’s the water heater. So the plumber goes straight there — skipping the spot where the customer first noticed the problem. 

Confirmation bias says your brain only pays attention to information that supports what you already believe. You hear “I knew that was going to happen” a lot from people deep in this one.

Key Takeaways:

• Confirmation bias makes you ignore information that contradicts your existing belief
• The plumber goes to the water heater instead of starting where the customer noticed the problem
• “I knew that” is the signature phrase of confirmation bias
• Counter it: be curious, look for the information that doesn’t fit

3. Availability Heuristic: Just Because It Happened Recently Doesn’t Mean It’ll Happen Again 

Chris tells a story about Lennox gas packs with ice cube relays. His team had seen the same burnt relay on eight out of ten recent calls. So every time they got a similar call, they showed up primed to replace that relay — and sometimes missed the real problem. 

The availability heuristic says whatever happened most recently is what your brain expects to happen next.

Key Takeaways:

• Recent experience primes you to expect the same thing on the next call
• The time factor matters — recency creates tunnel vision
• Just because you’ve done a lot of something recently doesn’t mean it’s always the answer
• Counter it: stay curious, keep an open mind on every call

4. Anchoring Bias: The Number You Say First Is the Number That Sticks

 A customer asks for a ballpark. You say $200 to $1,500. They heard $200. Now you’re anchored to it too — and when the job comes in at $1,500, you feel guilty about your own price. 

Chris walks through how anchoring works both ways: the customer anchors to the low number, and then so does the tech. That’s why you never give a ballpark.

Key Takeaways:

• Whoever says a number first sets the anchor — and it’s almost always the low number
• The customer anchors to the lowest number and so does the tech
• Feeling guilty about your own pricing is often anchoring bias at work
• Counter it: don’t give ballparks, present options properly

5. Halo Effect and Similarity Bias: Judging the Book by the Cover 

Chris tells two stories. First: the 80-year-old lady who opens the door and you immediately feel sorry for her, assume she’s on a fixed income, and start discounting before she’s said a word. 

Second: you walk into a customer’s home and see they’re into the same stuff you are — suddenly they’re getting a better deal because you think they think like you. Both are biases. Both cost you money.

Key Takeaways:

• The halo effect makes you prejudge customers based on appearance
• A run-down house doesn’t mean no money — and a nice house doesn’t mean an easy sale
• Similarity bias says if they look like you, they think like you — and that’s rarely true
• Counter it: be genuinely interested in people, don’t assume

6. Mount Stupid: The Dunning-Kruger Effect 

Chris introduces the concept that ties it all together. You learn something new — a product, a process, a technique — and your confidence shoots up immediately. You feel like an expert. But you haven’t done the reps. 

You haven’t let the smoke out of anything yet. That’s the top of Mount Stupid. Then someone holds a mirror up, asks one question that exposes what you don’t know, and you fall into the valley of despair. The only way out is the slow climb up the slope of enlightenment — reps, experience, humility.

Key Takeaways:

• Familiarity is not mastery — knowing about something is not the same as being able to do it
• The top of Mount Stupid feels like expertise — that’s what makes it dangerous
• People at the top avoid situations that challenge their knowledge — like role play
• The valley of despair is uncomfortable but it’s where real learning begins

7. The Evidence Is in Front of You Every Day 

Chris closes with proof that mastery never stops. Steph Curry still shoots three-pointers after practice. Brooks Koepka finished his round at the Masters under par — five major wins — and went straight to the range to hit more balls. 

True masters never claim to know everything because they’ve been in the valley of despair. They know how much they don’t know. And that’s where every tech should aim to be: open-minded, curious, and never done learning.

Key Takeaways:

• The best in the world never stop training — that’s what separates them
• True experts never claim mastery because they know how much they still don’t know
• Training is not repetitive — it’s where the reps happen that turn knowledge into execution
• Be open-minded, be curious, and realize you haven’t mastered it yet